Methods and systems of predictive monitoring of objects in a distributed network system

ABSTRACT

Predictive monitoring of objects in a distributed network system providing cloud services is disclosed. In one embodiment, the methods and systems observing one or more update messages sent and received among components of the distributed network system, the update messages comprising information associated with a state of an object on the distributed network system, determine the state of the object in response to the one or more update messages, and reference a predictive object state model to predict occurrence of an artifact in response to the state of the object. Advantageously, the present embodiments provide advanced warning of potential failures in a distributed network systems, which may enable a system administrator or dynamic process to resolve the failure before it ever occurs. Additional benefits and advantages of the present embodiments will become evident in the following description.

BACKGROUND

This application is a continuation-in-part of, and claims priority to, co-pending non-provisional U.S. patent applications Ser. No. 13/752,147 entitled “Methods and Systems of Distributed Tracing,” filed Jan. 28, 2013, Ser. No. 13/752,255 entitled “Methods and Systems of Generating a billing feed of a distributed network,” filed Jan. 28, 2013, and Ser. No. 13/752,234 entitled “Methods and Systems of Function-Specific Tracing,” filed Jan. 28, 2013, each of which are incorporated, in their entirety, herein by reference. This application is related to U.S. patent applications Ser. No. 13/841,446 entitled “Methods and Systems of Monitoring Failures in a Distributed Network System,” filed Mar. 15, 2013, and Ser. No. 13/841,330 entitled “Methods and Systems of Tracking and Verifying Records of System Change Events in a Distributed Network System,” filed Mar. 15, 2013, each of which are incorporated, in their entirety, herein by reference.

Distributed network systems are generally large and complex systems with resources distributed on diverse host devices and even on different networks. Monitoring of objects in distributed network systems can often be a challenging, particularly when aspects of the objects are distributed across multiple portions of the distributed network. Nonetheless, it is desirable to monitor objects in a distributed network in order to identify faults associated with the system, its processes and associated objects. It is also commonly desirable to gather performance metrics, usage metrics, and other metrics. Administrators of distributed network systems are often vigilant in efforts to minimize object failures and associated impacts of object failures because system reliability and availability standards are typically part of Service Level Agreements (SLAs), which are agreements that are commonly included in service purchase agreements. Thus, in certain instances, there may be financial consequences associated with object faults.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1a is a schematic view of a distributed system.

FIG. 1b is a schematic view illustrating an external view of a cloud computing system.

FIG. 2 is a schematic view illustrating an information processing system as used in various embodiments.

FIG. 3a shows a message service system according to various embodiments.

FIG. 3b is a diagram showing how a directed message is sent using the message service according to various embodiments.

FIG. 3c is a diagram showing how a broadcast message is sent using the message service according to various embodiments.

FIG. 4 shows IaaS-style computational cloud service according to various embodiments.

FIG. 5 shows an instantiating and launching process for virtual resources according to various embodiments.

FIG. 6 illustrates a schematic block diagram illustrating an environment in which the present embodiments are configured to operate.

FIG. 7 is a schematic block diagram illustrating one embodiment of an apparatus for tracking and verifying records of system change events in a distributed network system.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart diagram illustrating one embodiment of an apparatus configured for predictive monitoring of processes in a distributed network system.

FIG. 9 illustrates one embodiment of a process state flow.

FIG. 10 shows an embodiment of a predictive monitoring model.

FIG. 11 shows another embodiment of a predictive monitoring model.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The following disclosure has reference to predictive monitoring of objects in a distributed network system providing cloud services.

In one embodiment, the methods and systems observing one or more update messages sent and received among components of the distributed network system, the update messages comprising information associated with a state of an object on the distributed network system, determine the state of the object in response to the one or more update messages, and reference a predictive object state model to predict occurrence of an artifact in response to the state of the object. Advantageously, the present embodiments provide advanced warning of potential failures in a distributed network systems, which may enable a system administrator or dynamic process to resolve the failure before it ever occurs. Additional benefits and advantages of the present embodiments will become evident in the following description.

Monitored objects may include VM instances, system processes, VM images, data files, IP addresses, and other components of system 100 described below, which may exist or operate in a plurality of states and which may be subject to failures or failure-related errors, degradation, corruption, loss, orphaning, unavailability, or the like.

FIG. 1A illustrates a simplified diagram of a distributed application 100 for which various embodiments of verification of records of system change events in a distributed network system may be implemented. It should be appreciated that application 100 is provided merely as an example and that other suitable distributed applications, middleware, or computing systems can benefit from distributed system status verification capabilities described herein. According to one embodiment, application 100 may be a cloud service.

According to one embodiment, application 100 includes monitoring service 107 configured to provide predictive monitoring of objects in system 100. In certain embodiments, monitoring service 107 may be implemented in association with event manager 106 (not shown in FIG. 1a , but illustrated in related U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/841,446 entitled “Methods and Systems of Monitoring Failures in a Distributed Network System,” filed Mar. 15, 2013, and Ser. No. 13/841,330 entitled “Methods and Systems of Tracking and Verifying Records of System Change Events in a Distributed Network System,” filed Mar. 15, 2013 which are both incorporated herein by reference in their entirety). As will be described in more detail below, predictive monitoring can provide advanced warning of object-related failures and increase reliability of the distributed application. By way of example, monitoring service 107 can observe messages within the distributed application across queues and from particular components of the application. As depicted in FIG. 1A, monitoring service 107 interfaces with message service 110 of application 100. Message service 110 connects various subsystems of the application 100, and message service 110 may be configured to pass messages relative to one or more elements of system 100.

System 100 may include one or more subsystems, such as controllers 112 and services 117. System 100 may include one or more controllers 112 for the application to be employed in a distributed architecture, such as cloud computing services. As depicted in FIG. 1A, controllers 112 include a compute controller 115 a, a storage controller 115 b, auth controller 115 c, image service controller 115 d and network controller 115 e. Controllers 115 are described with reference to a cloud computing architecture in FIG. 1. By way of example, network controller 115 a deals with host machine network configurations and can perform operations for allocating IP addresses, configuring VLANs, implementing security groups and configuring networks. Each of controllers 112 may interface with one or more services. As depicted in FIG. 1A, compute controller 115 a interfaces with compute pool 120 a, storage controller 115 b may interface with object store 120 b, auth controller 115 c may interface with authentication/authorization controller 120 c, image service controller 115 d may interface with image store 120 d and network controller 115 e may interface with virtual networking devices 120 e. Although controllers 115 and services 120 are with reference to an open architecture, it should be appreciated that the methods and systems for predictive modeling may be equally applied to other distributed applications.

Referring now to FIG. 1b , an external view of a cloud computing system 130 is illustrated. Cloud computing system 130 includes monitoring service 107 and message service 110. According to one embodiment, monitoring service 107 can observe messages of cloud computing system 130 and constructs a predictive state model of objects on the cloud system 130. According to another embodiment, controllers and services of the cloud computing system 130 may include monitoring services 107 to provide state predictions related to local objects.

The cloud computing system 130 includes a user device 132 connected to a network 134 such as, for example, a Transport Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) network (e.g., the Internet.) The user device 132 is coupled to the cloud computing system 130 via one or more service endpoints 155. Depending on the type of cloud service provided, these endpoints give varying amounts of control relative to the provisioning of resources within the cloud computing system 130. For example, SaaS endpoint 152 a typically only gives information and access relative to the application running on the cloud storage system, and the scaling and processing aspects of the cloud computing system is obscured from the user. PaaS endpoint 152 b typically gives an abstract Application Programming Interface (API) that allows developers to declaratively request or command the backend storage, computation, and scaling resources provided by the cloud, without giving exact control to the user. IaaS endpoint 152 c typically provides the ability to directly request the provisioning of resources, such as computation units (typically virtual machines), software-defined or software-controlled network elements like routers, switches, domain name servers, etc., file or object storage facilities, authorization services, database services, queue services and endpoints, etc. In addition, users interacting with an IaaS cloud are typically able to provide virtual machine images that have been customized for user-specific functions. This allows the cloud computing system 130 to be used for new, user-defined services without requiring specific support.

It is important to recognize that the control allowed via an IaaS endpoint is not complete. Within the cloud computing system 130 are one or more cloud controllers 135 (running what is sometimes called a “cloud operating system”) that work on an even lower level, interacting with physical machines, managing the contradictory demands of the multi-tenant cloud computing system 130. In one embodiment, these correspond to the controllers and services discussed relative to FIG. 1a . The workings of the cloud controllers 135 are typically not exposed outside of the cloud computing system 130, even in an IaaS context. In one embodiment, the commands received through one of the service endpoints 155 are then routed via one or more internal networks 154. The internal network 154 couples the different services to each other. The internal network 154 may encompass various protocols or services, including but not limited to electrical, optical, or wireless connections at the physical layer; Ethernet, Fiber channel, ATM, and SONET at the MAC layer; TCP, UDP, ZeroMQ or other services at the connection layer; and XMPP, HTTP, AMPQ, STOMP, SMS, SMTP, SNMP, or other standards at the protocol layer. The internal network 154 is typically not exposed outside the cloud computing system, except to the extent that one or more virtual networks 156 may be exposed that control the internal routing according to various rules. The virtual networks 156 typically do not expose as much complexity as may exist in the actual internal network 154; but varying levels of granularity can be exposed to the control of the user, particularly in IaaS services.

In one or more embodiments, it may be useful to include various processing or routing nodes in the network layers 154 and 156, such as proxy/gateway 150. Other types of processing or routing nodes may include switches, routers, switch fabrics, caches, format modifiers, or correlators. These processing and routing nodes may or may not be visible to the outside. It is typical that one level of processing or routing nodes may be internal only, coupled to the internal network 154, whereas other types of network services may be defined by or accessible to users, and show up in one or more virtual networks 156. Either of the internal network 154 or the virtual networks 156 may be encrypted or authenticated according to the protocols and services described below.

In various embodiments, one or more parts of the cloud computing system 130 may be disposed on a single host. Accordingly, some of the “network” layers 154 and 156 may be composed of an internal call graph, inter-process communication (IPC), or a shared memory communication system.

Once a communication passes from the endpoints via a network layer 154 or 156, as well as possibly via one or more switches or processing devices 150, it is received by one or more applicable cloud controllers 135. The cloud controllers 135 are responsible for interpreting the message and coordinating the performance of the necessary corresponding services, returning a response if necessary. Although the cloud controllers 135 may provide services directly, more typically the cloud controllers 135 are in operative contact with the service resources 140 necessary to provide the corresponding services. For example, it is possible for different services to be provided at different levels of abstraction. For example, a service 140 a may be a “compute” service that will work at an IaaS level, allowing the creation and control of user-defined virtual computing resources. In addition to the services discussed relative to FIG. 1a , a cloud computing system 130 may provide a declarative storage API, a SaaS-level Queue service 140 c, a DNS service 140 d, or a Database service 140 e, or other application services without exposing any of the underlying scaling or computational resources. Other services are contemplated as discussed in detail below.

In various embodiments, various cloud computing services or the cloud computing system itself may require a message passing system. The message routing service 110 is available to address this need, but it is not a required part of the system architecture in at least one embodiment. In one embodiment, the message routing service is used to transfer messages from one component to another without explicitly linking the state of the two components. Note that this message routing service 110 may or may not be available for user-addressable systems; in one preferred embodiment, there is a separation between storage for cloud service state and for user data, including user service state.

In various embodiments, various cloud computing services or the cloud computing system itself may require a persistent storage for system state. The data store 125 is available to address this need, but it is not a required part of the system architecture in at least one embodiment. In one embodiment, various aspects of system state are saved in redundant databases on various hosts or as special files in an object storage service. In a second embodiment, a relational database service is used to store system state. In a third embodiment, a column, graph, or document-oriented database is used. Note that this persistent storage may or may not be available for user-addressable systems; in one preferred embodiment, there is a separation between storage for cloud service state and for user data, including user service state.

In various embodiments, it may be useful for the cloud computing system 130 to have a system controller 145. In one embodiment, the system controller 145 is similar to the cloud computing controllers 135, except that it is used to control or direct operations at the level of the cloud computing system 130 rather than at the level of an individual service.

For clarity of discussion above, only one user device 132 has been illustrated as connected to the cloud computing system 130, and the discussion generally referred to receiving a communication from outside the cloud computing system, routing it to a cloud controller 135, and coordinating processing of the message via a service 130, the infrastructure described is also equally available for sending out messages. These messages may be sent out as replies to previous communications, or they may be internally sourced. Routing messages from a particular service 130 to a user device 132 is accomplished in the same manner as receiving a message from user device 132 to a service 130, just in reverse. The precise manner of receiving, processing, responding, and sending messages is described below with reference to the various discussed service embodiments. One of skill in the art will recognize, however, that a plurality of user devices 132 may, and typically will, be connected to the cloud computing system 130 and that each element or set of elements within the cloud computing system is replicable as necessary. Further, the cloud computing system 130, whether or not it has one endpoint or multiple endpoints, is expected to encompass embodiments including public clouds, private clouds, hybrid clouds, and multi-vendor clouds.

Each of the user device 132, the cloud computing system 130, the endpoints 152, the cloud controllers 135 and the cloud services 140 typically include a respective information processing system, a subsystem, or a part of a subsystem for executing processes and performing operations (e.g., processing or communicating information). An information processing system is an electronic device capable of processing, executing or otherwise handling information, such as a computer. FIG. 2 shows an information processing system 210 that is representative of one of, or a portion of, the information processing systems described above.

Referring now to FIG. 2, diagram 200 shows an information processing system 210 configured to host one or more virtual machines, coupled to a network 205. The network 205 could be one or both of the networks 154 and 156 described above. An information processing system is an electronic device capable of processing, executing or otherwise handling information. Examples of information processing systems include a server computer, a personal computer (e.g., a desktop computer or a portable computer such as, for example, a laptop computer), a handheld computer, and/or a variety of other information handling systems known in the art. The information processing system 210 shown is representative of, one of, or a portion of, the information processing systems described above.

The information processing system 210 may include any or all of the following: (a) a processor 212 for executing and otherwise processing instructions, (b) one or more network interfaces 214 (e.g., circuitry) for communicating between the processor 212 and other devices, those other devices possibly located across the network 205; (c) a memory device 216 (e.g., FLASH memory, a random access memory (RAM) device or a read-only memory (ROM) device for storing information (e.g., instructions executed by processor 212 and data operated upon by processor 212 in response to such instructions)). In some embodiments, the information processing system 210 may also include a separate computer-readable medium 218 operably coupled to the processor 212 for storing information and instructions as described further below.

In one embodiment, there is more than one network interface 214, so that the multiple network interfaces can be used to separately route management, production, and other traffic. In one exemplary embodiment, an information processing system has a “management” interface at 1 GB/s, a “production” interface at 10 GB/s, and may have additional interfaces for channel bonding, high availability, or performance. An information processing device configured as a processing or routing node may also have an additional interface dedicated to public Internet traffic, and specific circuitry or resources necessary to act as a VLAN trunk.

In some embodiments, the information processing system 210 may include a plurality of input/output devices 220 a-n which are operably coupled to the processor 212, for inputting or outputting information, such as a display device 220 a, a print device 220 b, or other electronic circuitry 220 c-n for performing other operations of the information processing system 210 known in the art.

With reference to the computer-readable media, including both memory device 216 and secondary computer-readable medium 218, the computer-readable media and the processor 212 are structurally and functionally interrelated with one another as described below in further detail, and information processing system of the illustrative embodiment is structurally and functionally interrelated with a respective computer-readable medium similar to the manner in which the processor 212 is structurally and functionally interrelated with the computer-readable media 216 and 218. As discussed above, the computer-readable media may be implemented using a hard disk drive, a memory device, and/or a variety of other computer-readable media known in the art, and when including functional descriptive material, data structures are created that define structural and functional interrelationships between such data structures and the computer-readable media (and other aspects of the system 200). Such interrelationships permit the data structures' functionality to be realized. For example, in one embodiment the processor 212 reads (e.g., accesses or copies) such functional descriptive material from the network interface 214, the computer-readable media 218 onto the memory device 216 of the information processing system 210, and the information processing system 210 (more particularly, the processor 212) performs its operations, as described elsewhere herein, in response to such material stored in the memory device of the information processing system 210. In addition to reading such functional descriptive material from the computer-readable medium 218, the processor 212 is capable of reading such functional descriptive material from (or through) the network 105. In one embodiment, the information processing system 210 includes at least one type of computer-readable media that is non-transitory. For explanatory purposes below, singular forms such as “computer-readable medium,” “memory,” and “disk” are used, but it is intended that these may refer to all or any portion of the computer-readable media available in or to a particular information processing system 210, without limiting them to a specific location or implementation.

The information processing system 210 includes a hypervisor 230. The hypervisor 230 may be implemented in software, as a subsidiary information processing system, or in a tailored electrical circuit or as software instructions to be used in conjunction with a processor to create a hardware-software combination that implements the specific functionality described herein. To the extent that software is used to implement the hypervisor, it may include software that is stored on a computer-readable medium, including the computer-readable medium 218. The hypervisor may be included logically “below” a host operating system, as a host itself, as part of a larger host operating system, or as a program or process running “above” or “on top of” a host operating system. Examples of hypervisors include Xenserver, KVM, VMware, Microsoft's Hyper-V, and emulation programs such as QEMU.

The hypervisor 230 includes the functionality to add, remove, and modify a number of logical containers 232 a-n associated with the hypervisor. Zero, one, or many of the logical containers 232 a-n contain associated operating environments 234 a-n. The logical containers 232 a-n can implement various interfaces depending upon the desired characteristics of the operating environment. In one embodiment, a logical container 232 implements a hardware-like interface, such that the associated operating environment 234 appears to be running on or within an information processing system such as the information processing system 210. For example, one embodiment of a logical container 234 could implement an interface resembling an x86, x86-64, ARM, or other computer instruction set with appropriate RAM, busses, disks, and network devices. A corresponding operating environment 234 for this embodiment could be an operating system such as Microsoft Windows, Linux, Linux-Android, or Mac OS X. In another embodiment, a logical container 232 implements an operating system-like interface, such that the associated operating environment 234 appears to be running on or within an operating system. For example one embodiment of this type of logical container 232 could appear to be a Microsoft Windows, Linux, or Mac OS X operating system. Another possible operating system includes an Android operating system, which includes significant runtime functionality on top of a lower-level kernel. A corresponding operating environment 234 could enforce separation between users and processes such that each process or group of processes appeared to have sole access to the resources of the operating system. In a third environment, a logical container 232 implements a software-defined interface, such a language runtime or logical process that the associated operating environment 234 can use to run and interact with its environment. For example one embodiment of this type of logical container 232 could appear to be a Java, Dalvik, Lua, Python, or other language virtual machine. A corresponding operating environment 234 would use the built-in threading, processing, and code loading capabilities to load and run code. Adding, removing, or modifying a logical container 232 may or may not also involve adding, removing, or modifying an associated operating environment 234. For ease of explanation below, these operating environments will be described in terms of an embodiment as “Virtual Machines,” or “VMs,” but this is simply one implementation among the options listed above.

In one or more embodiments, a VM has one or more virtual network interfaces 236. How the virtual network interface is exposed to the operating environment depends upon the implementation of the operating environment. In an operating environment that mimics a hardware computer, the virtual network interface 236 appears as one or more virtual network interface cards. In an operating environment that appears as an operating system, the virtual network interface 236 appears as a virtual character device or socket. In an operating environment that appears as a language runtime, the virtual network interface appears as a socket, queue, message service, or other appropriate construct. The virtual network interfaces (VNIs) 236 may be associated with a virtual switch (Vswitch) at either the hypervisor or container level. The VNI 236 logically couples the operating environment 234 to the network, and allows the VMs to send and receive network traffic. In one embodiment, the physical network interface card 214 is also coupled to one or more VMs through a Vswitch.

In one or more embodiments, each VM includes identification data for use naming, interacting, or referring to the VM. This can include the Media Access Control (MAC) address, the Internet Protocol (IP) address, and one or more unambiguous names or identifiers.

In one or more embodiments, a “volume” is a detachable block storage device. In some embodiments, a particular volume can only be attached to one instance at a time, whereas in other embodiments a volume works like a Storage Area Network (SAN) so that it can be concurrently accessed by multiple devices. Volumes can be attached to either a particular information processing device or a particular virtual machine, so they are or appear to be local to that machine. Further, a volume attached to one information processing device or VM can be exported over the network to share access with other instances using common file sharing protocols. In other embodiments, there are areas of storage declared to be “local storage.” Typically a local storage volume will be storage from the information processing device shared with or exposed to one or more operating environments on the information processing device. Local storage is guaranteed to exist only for the duration of the operating environment; recreating the operating environment may or may not remove or erase any local storage associated with that operating environment.

Message Service

Between the various virtual machines and virtual devices, it may be necessary to have a reliable messaging infrastructure. In various embodiments, a message queuing service is used for both local and remote communication so that there is no requirement that any of the services exist on the same physical machine. Various existing messaging infrastructures are contemplated, including AMQP, ZeroMQ, STOMP and XMPP. Note that this messaging system may or may not be available for user-addressable systems; in one preferred embodiment, there is a separation between internal messaging services and any messaging services associated with user data.

In one embodiment, the message service sits between various components and allows them to communicate in a loosely coupled fashion. This can be accomplished using Remote Procedure Calls (RPC hereinafter) to communicate between components, built atop either direct messages and/or an underlying publish/subscribe infrastructure. In a typical embodiment, it is expected that both direct and topic-based exchanges are used. This allows for decoupling of the components, full asynchronous communications, and transparent balancing between equivalent components. In some embodiments, calls between different APIs can be supported over the distributed system by providing an adapter class which takes care of marshalling and unmarshalling of messages into function calls.

In one embodiment, a cloud controller 135 (or the applicable cloud service 140) creates two queues at initialization time, one that accepts node-specific messages and another that accepts generic messages addressed to any node of a particular type. This allows both specific node control as well as orchestration of the cloud service without limiting the particular implementation of a node. In an embodiment in which these message queues are bridged to an API, the API can act as a consumer, server, or publisher.

Turning now to FIG. 3a , one implementation of a message service 110 is shown. For simplicity of description, FIG. 3a shows the message service 300 when a single instance is deployed and shared in the cloud computing system 130, but the message service can be either centralized or fully distributed.

In one embodiment, the message service 300 keeps traffic associated with different queues or routing keys separate, so that disparate services can use the message service without interfering with each other. Accordingly, the message queue service may be used to communicate messages between network elements, between cloud services 140, between cloud controllers 135, between network elements, or between any group of sub-elements within the above. More than one message service may be used, and a cloud service 140 may use its own message service as required.

For clarity of exposition, access to the message service will be described in terms of “Invokers” and “Workers,” but these labels are purely expository and are not intended to convey a limitation on purpose; in some embodiments, a single component (such as a VM) may act first as an Invoker, then as a Worker, the other way around, or simultaneously in each role. An Invoker is a component that sends messages in the system via two operations: 1) an RPC (Remote Procedure Call) directed message and ii) an RPC broadcast. A Worker is a component that receives messages from the message system and replies accordingly.

In one embodiment, there is a message node 302 including one or more exchanges 310. In a second embodiment, the message system is “brokerless,” and one or more exchanges are located at each client. The exchanges 310 act as internal message routing elements so that components interacting with the message service can send and receive messages. In one embodiment, these exchanges are subdivided further into a topic exchange 310 a and a direct exchange 310 b. An exchange 310 is a routing structure or system that exists in a particular context. In a one embodiment, multiple contexts can be included within a single message service with each one acting independently of the others. In one embodiment, the type of exchange, such as a topic exchange 310 a vs. direct exchange 310 b determines the routing policy. In a second embodiment, the routing policy is determined via a series of routing rules evaluated by the exchange 310.

The direct exchange 310 a is a routing element created during or for RPC directed message operations. In one embodiment, there are many instances of a direct exchange 310 a that are created as needed for the message service. In a further embodiment, there is one direct exchange 310 a created for each RPC directed message received by the system.

The topic exchange 310 a is a routing element created during or for RPC directed broadcast operations. In one simple embodiment, every message received by the topic exchange is received by every other connected component. In a second embodiment, the routing rule within a topic exchange is described as publish-subscribe, wherein different components can specify a discriminating function and only topics matching the discriminator are passed along. In one embodiment, there are many instances of a topic exchange 310 b that are created as needed for the message service. In one embodiment, there is one topic-based exchange for every topic created in the cloud computing system. In a second embodiment, there are a set number of topics that have pre-created and persistent topic exchanges 310 b.

Within one or more of the exchanges 310, it may be useful to have a queue element 315. A queue 315 is a message stream; messages sent into the stream are kept in the queue 315 until a consuming component connects to the queue and fetches the message. A queue 315 can be shared or can be exclusive. In one embodiment, queues with the same topic are shared amongst Workers subscribed to that topic.

In a typical embodiment, a queue 315 will implement a FIFO policy for messages and ensure that they are delivered in the same order that they are received. In other embodiments, however, a queue 315 may implement other policies, such as LIFO, a priority queue (highest-priority messages are delivered first), or age (oldest objects in the queue are delivered first), or other configurable delivery policies. In other embodiments, a queue 315 may or may not make any guarantees related to message delivery or message persistence.

In one embodiment, element 320 is a topic publisher. A topic publisher 320 is created, instantiated, or awakened when an RPC directed message or an RPC broadcast operation is executed; this object is instantiated and used to push a message to the message system. Every publisher connects always to the same topic-based exchange; its life-cycle is limited to the message delivery.

In one embodiment, element 330 is a direct consumer. A direct consumer 330 is created, instantiated, or awakened if an RPC directed message operation is executed; this component is instantiated and used to receive a response message from the queuing system. Every direct consumer 330 connects to a unique direct-based exchange via a unique exclusive queue, identified by a UUID or other unique name. The life-cycle of the direct consumer 330 is limited to the message delivery. In one embodiment, the exchange and queue identifiers are included the message sent by the topic publisher 320 for RPC directed message operations.

In one embodiment, elements 340 (elements 340 a and 340 b) are topic consumers. In one embodiment, a topic consumer 340 is created, instantiated, or awakened at system start. In a second embodiment, a topic consumer 340 is created, instantiated, or awakened when a topic is registered with the message system 300. In a third embodiment, a topic consumer 340 is created, instantiated, or awakened at the same time that a Worker or Workers are instantiated and persists as long as the associated Worker or Workers have not been destroyed. In this embodiment, the topic consumer 340 is used to receive messages from the queue and it invokes the appropriate action as defined by the Worker role. A topic consumer 340 connects to the topic-based exchange either via a shared queue or via a unique exclusive queue. In one embodiment, every Worker has two associated topic consumers 340, one that is addressed only during an RPC broadcast operations (and it connects to a shared queue whose exchange key is defined by the topic) and the other that is addressed only during an RPC directed message operations, connected to a unique queue whose with the exchange key is defined by the topic and the host.

In one embodiment, element 350 is a direct publisher. In one embodiment, a direct publisher 350 is created, instantiated, or awakened for RPC directed message operations and it is instantiated to return the message required by the request/response operation. The object connects to a direct-based exchange whose identity is dictated by the incoming message.

Turning now to FIG. 3b , one embodiment of the process of sending an RPC directed message is shown relative to the elements of the message system 300 as described relative to FIG. 3a . All elements are as described above relative to FIG. 3a unless described otherwise. At step 360, a topic publisher 320 is instantiated. At step 361, the topic publisher 320 sends a message to an exchange 310 b. At step 362, a direct consumer 330 is instantiated to wait for the response message. At step 363, the message is dispatched by the exchange 310 b. At step 364, the message is fetched by the topic consumer 340 dictated by the routing key (either by topic or by topic and host). At step 365, the message is passed to a Worker associated with the topic consumer 340. If needed, at step 366, a direct publisher 350 is instantiated to send a response message via the message system 300. At step 367, the direct publisher 340 sends a message to an exchange 310 a. At step 368, the response message is dispatched by the exchange 310 a. At step 369, the response message is fetched by the direct consumer 330 instantiated to receive the response and dictated by the routing key. At step 370, the message response is passed to the Invoker.

Turning now to FIG. 3c , one embodiment of the process of sending an RPC broadcast message is shown relative to the elements of the message system 300 as described relative to FIG. 3a . All elements are as described above relative to FIG. 3a unless described otherwise. At step 580, a topic publisher 520 is instantiated. At step 381, the topic publisher 320 sends a message to an exchange 310 a. At step 382, the message is dispatched by the exchange 310 b. At step 383, the message is fetched by a topic consumer 340 dictated by the routing key (either by topic or by topic and host). At step 384, the message is passed to a Worker associated with the topic consumer 340.

In some embodiments, a response to an RPC broadcast message can be requested. In that case, the process follows the steps outlined relative to FIG. 3b to return a response to the Invoker. As the process of instantiating and launching a VM instance in FIG. 5 shows, requests to a distributed service or application may move through various software components, which may be running on one physical machine or may span across multiple machines and network boundaries.

Turning now to FIG. 4, an IaaS-style computational cloud service (a “compute” service) is shown at 400 according to one embodiment. This is one embodiment of a cloud controller 135 with associated cloud service 140 as described relative to FIG. 1b . Except as described relative to specific embodiments, the existence of a compute service does not require or prohibit the existence of other portions of the cloud computing system 130 nor does it require or prohibit the existence of other cloud controllers 135 with other respective services 140.

To the extent that some components described relative to the compute service 400 are similar to components of the larger cloud computing system 130, those components may be shared between the cloud computing system 130 and a compute service 400, or they may be completely separate. Further, to the extent that “controllers,” “nodes,” “servers,” “managers,” “VMs,” or similar terms are described relative to the compute service 400, those can be understood to comprise any of a single information processing device 210 as described relative to FIG. 2, multiple information processing devices 210, a single VM as described relative to FIG. 2, a group or cluster of VMs or information processing devices as described relative to FIG. 3. These may run on a single machine or a group of machines, but logically work together to provide the described function within the system.

In one embodiment, compute service 400 includes an API Server 410, a Compute Controller 420, an Auth Manager 430, an Object Store 440, a Volume Controller 450, a Network Controller 460, and a Compute Manager 470. These components are coupled by a communications network of the type previously described. In one embodiment, communications between various components are message-oriented, using HTTP or a messaging protocol such as AMQP, ZeroMQ, or STOMP.

Although various components are described as “calling” each other or “sending” data or messages, one embodiment makes the communications or calls between components asynchronous with callbacks that get triggered when responses are received. This allows the system to be architected in a “shared-nothing” fashion. To achieve the shared-nothing property with multiple copies of the same component, compute service 400 further includes distributed data store 490. Global state for compute service 400 is written into this store using atomic transactions when required. Requests for system state are read out of this store. In some embodiments, results are cached within controllers for short periods of time to improve performance. In various embodiments, the distributed data store 490 can be the same as, or share the same implementation as Object Store 440.

In one embodiment, the API server 410 includes external API endpoints 412. In one embodiment, the external API endpoints 412 are provided over an RPC-style system, such as CORBA, DCE/COM, SOAP, or XML-RPC. These follow the calling structure and conventions defined in their respective standards. In another embodiment, the external API endpoints 412 are basic HTTP web services following a REST pattern and identifiable via URL. Requests to read a value from a resource are mapped to HTTP GETs, requests to create resources are mapped to HTTP PUTs, requests to update values associated with a resource are mapped to HTTP POSTs, and requests to delete resources are mapped to HTTP DELETEs. In some embodiments, other REST-style verbs are also available, such as the ones associated with WebDay. In a third embodiment, the API endpoints 412 are provided via internal function calls, IPC, or a shared memory mechanism. Regardless of how the API is presented, the external API endpoints 412 are used to handle authentication, authorization, and basic command and control functions using various API interfaces. In one embodiment, the same functionality is available via multiple APIs, including APIs associated with other cloud computing systems. This enables API compatibility with multiple existing tool sets created for interaction with offerings from other vendors.

The Compute Controller 420 coordinates the interaction of the various parts of the compute service 400. In one embodiment, the various internal services that work together to provide the compute service 400, are internally decoupled by adopting a service-oriented architecture (SOA). The Compute Controller 420 serves as an internal API server, allowing the various internal controllers, managers, and other components to request and consume services from the other components. In one embodiment, all messages pass through the Compute Controller 420. In a second embodiment, the Compute Controller 420 brings up services and advertises service availability, but requests and responses go directly between the components making and serving the request. In a third embodiment, there is a hybrid model in which some services are requested through the Compute Controller 420, but the responses are provided directly from one component to another.

In one embodiment, communication to and from the Compute Controller 420 is mediated via one or more internal API endpoints 422, provided in a similar fashion to those discussed above. The internal API endpoints 422 differ from the external API endpoints 412 in that the internal API endpoints 422 advertise services only available within the overall compute service 400, whereas the external API endpoints 412 advertise services available outside the compute service 400. There may be one or more internal APIs 422 that correspond to external APIs 412, but it is expected that there will be a greater number and variety of internal API calls available from the Compute Controller 420.

In one embodiment, the Compute Controller 420 includes an instruction processor 424 for receiving and processing instructions associated with directing the compute service 400. For example, in one embodiment, responding to an API call involves making a series of coordinated internal API calls to the various services available within the compute service 400, and conditioning later API calls on the outcome or results of earlier API calls. The instruction processor 424 is the component within the Compute Controller 420 responsible for marshaling arguments, calling services, and making conditional decisions to respond appropriately to API calls.

In one embodiment, the instruction processor 424 is implemented as a tailored electrical circuit or as software instructions to be used in conjunction with a hardware processor to create a hardware-software combination that implements the specific functionality described herein. To the extent that one embodiment includes computer-executable instructions, those instructions may include software that is stored on a computer-readable medium. Further, one or more embodiments have associated with them a buffer. The buffer can take the form of data structures, a memory, a computer-readable medium, or an off-script-processor facility. For example, one embodiment uses a language runtime as an instruction processor 424, running as a discrete operating environment, as a process in an active operating environment, or can be run from a low-power embedded processor. In a second embodiment, the instruction processor 424 takes the form of a series of interoperating but discrete components, some or all of which may be implemented as software programs. In another embodiment, the instruction processor 424 is a discrete component, using a small amount of flash and a low power processor, such as a low-power ARM processor. In a further embodiment, the instruction processor includes a rule engine as a submodule as described herein.

In one embodiment, the Compute Controller 420 includes a message queue as provided by message service 426. In accordance with the service-oriented architecture described above, the various functions within the compute service 400 are isolated into discrete internal services that communicate with each other by passing data in a well-defined, shared format, or by coordinating an activity between two or more services. In one embodiment, this is done using a message queue as provided by message service 426. The message service 426 brokers the interactions between the various services inside and outside the Compute Service 400.

In one embodiment, the message service 426 is implemented similarly to the message service described relative to FIGS. 3a-3c . The message service 426 may use the message service 110 directly, with a set of unique exchanges, or may use a similarly configured but separate service.

The Auth Manager 430 provides services for authenticating and managing user, account, role, project, group, quota, and security group information for the compute service 400. In a first embodiment, every call is necessarily associated with an authenticated and authorized entity within the system, and so is or can be checked before any action is taken. In another embodiment, internal messages are assumed to be authorized, but all messages originating from outside the service are suspect. In this embodiment, the Auth Manager checks the keys provided associated with each call received over external API endpoints 412 and terminates and/or logs any call that appears to come from an unauthenticated or unauthorized source. In a third embodiment, the Auth Manager 430 is also used for providing resource-specific information such as security groups, but the internal API calls for that information are assumed to be authorized. External calls are still checked for proper authentication and authorization. Other schemes for authentication and authorization can be implemented by flagging certain API calls as needing verification by the Auth Manager 430, and others as needing no verification.

In one embodiment, external communication to and from the Auth Manager 430 is mediated via one or more authentication and authorization API endpoints 632, provided in a similar fashion to those discussed above. The authentication and authorization API endpoints 432 differ from the external API endpoints 612 in that the authentication and authorization API endpoints 432 are only used for managing users, resources, projects, groups, and rules associated with those entities, such as security groups, RBAC roles, etc. In another embodiment, the authentication and authorization API endpoints 432 are provided as a subset of external API endpoints 412.

In one embodiment, the Auth Manager 430 includes rules processor 434 for processing the rules associated with the different portions of the compute service 400. In one embodiment, this is implemented in a similar fashion to the instruction processor 424 described above.

The Object Store 440 provides redundant, scalable object storage capacity for arbitrary data used by other portions of the compute service 400. At its simplest, the Object Store 440 can be implemented one or more block devices exported over the network. In a second embodiment, the Object Store 440 is implemented as a structured, and possibly distributed data organization system. Examples include relational database systems—both standalone and clustered—as well as non-relational structured data storage systems like MongoDB, Apache Cassandra, or Redis. In a third embodiment, the Object Store 440 is implemented as a redundant, eventually consistent, fully distributed data storage service.

In one embodiment, external communication to and from the Object Store 440 is mediated via one or more object storage API endpoints 442, provided in a similar fashion to those discussed above. In one embodiment, the object storage API endpoints 442 are internal APIs only. In a second embodiment, the Object Store 440 is provided by a separate cloud service 130, so the “internal” API used for compute service 400 is the same as the external API provided by the object storage service itself.

In one embodiment, the Object Store 440 includes an Image Service 444. The Image Service 444 is a lookup and retrieval system for virtual machine images. In one embodiment, various virtual machine images can be associated with a unique project, group, user, or name and stored in the Object Store 440 under an appropriate key. In this fashion multiple different virtual machine image files can be provided and programmatically loaded by the compute service 400.

The Volume Controller 450 coordinates the provision of block devices for use and attachment to virtual machines. In one embodiment, the Volume Controller 450 includes Volume Workers 452. The Volume Workers 452 are implemented as unique virtual machines, processes, or threads of control that interact with one or more backend volume providers 454 to create, update, delete, manage, and attach one or more volumes 456 to a requesting VM.

In a first embodiment, the Volume Controller 450 is implemented using a SAN that provides a sharable, network-exported block device that is available to one or more VMs, using a network block protocol such as iSCSI. In this embodiment, the Volume Workers 452 interact with the SAN to manage and iSCSI storage to manage LVM-based instance volumes, stored on one or more smart disks or independent processing devices that act as volume providers 454 using their embedded storage 456. In a second embodiment, disk volumes 456 are stored in the Object Store 440 as image files under appropriate keys. The Volume Controller 450 interacts with the Object Store 440 to retrieve a disk volume 456 and place it within an appropriate logical container on the same information processing system 440 that contains the requesting VM. An instruction processing module acting in concert with the instruction processor and hypervisor on the information processing system 240 acts as the volume provider 454, managing, mounting, and unmounting the volume 456 on the requesting VM. In a further embodiment, the same volume 456 may be mounted on two or more VMs, and a block-level replication facility may be used to synchronize changes that occur in multiple places. In a third embodiment, the Volume Controller 450 acts as a block-device proxy for the Object Store 440, and directly exports a view of one or more portions of the Object Store 440 as a volume. In this embodiment, the volumes are simply views onto portions of the Object Store 440, and the Volume Workers 454 are part of the internal implementation of the Object Store 440.

In one embodiment, the Network Controller 460 manages the networking resources for VM hosts managed by the compute manager 470. Messages received by Network Controller 460 are interpreted and acted upon to create, update, and manage network resources for compute nodes within the compute service, such as allocating fixed IP addresses, configuring VLANs for projects or groups, or configuring networks for compute nodes.

In one embodiment, the Network Controller 460 may use a shared cloud controller directly, with a set of unique addresses, identifiers, and routing rules, or may use a similarly configured but separate service.

In one embodiment, the Compute Manager 470 manages computing instances for use by API users using the compute service 400. In one embodiment, the Compute Manager 470 is coupled to a plurality of resource pools 472, each of which includes one or more compute nodes 474. Each compute node 474 is a virtual machine management system as described relative to FIG. 3 and includes a compute worker 476, a module working in conjunction with the hypervisor and instruction processor to create, administer, and destroy multiple user- or system-defined logical containers and operating environments—VMs—according to requests received through the API. In various embodiments, the pools of compute nodes may be organized into clusters, such as clusters 476 a and 476 b. In one embodiment, each resource pool 472 is physically located in one or more data centers in one or more different locations. In another embodiment, resource pools have different physical or software resources, such as different available hardware, higher-throughput network connections, or lower latency to a particular location.

In one embodiment, the Compute Manager 470 allocates VM images to particular compute nodes 474 via a Scheduler 478. The Scheduler 478 is a matching service; requests for the creation of new VM instances come in and the most applicable Compute nodes 474 are selected from the pool of potential candidates. In one embodiment, the Scheduler 478 selects a compute node 474 using a random algorithm. Because the node is chosen randomly, the load on any particular node tends to be non-coupled and the load across all resource pools tends to stay relatively even.

In a second embodiment, a smart scheduler 478 is used. A smart scheduler analyzes the capabilities associated with a particular resource pool 472 and its component services to make informed decisions on where a new instance should be created. When making this decision it consults not only all the Compute nodes across the resource pools 472 until the ideal host is found.

In a third embodiment, a distributed scheduler 478 is used. A distributed scheduler is designed to coordinate the creation of instances across multiple compute services 400. Not only does the distributed scheduler 478 analyze the capabilities associated with the resource pools 472 available to the current compute service 400, it also recursively consults the schedulers of any linked compute services until the ideal host is found.

In one embodiment, either the smart scheduler or the distributed scheduler is implemented using a rules engine 479 (not shown) and a series of associated rules regarding costs and weights associated with desired compute node characteristics. When deciding where to place an Instance, rules engine 479 compares a Weighted Cost for each node. In one embodiment, the Weighting is just the sum of the total Costs. In a second embodiment, a Weighting is calculated using an exponential or polynomial algorithm. In the simplest embodiment, costs are nothing more than integers along a fixed scale, although costs can also be represented by floating point numbers, vectors, or matrices. Costs are computed by looking at the various Capabilities of the available node relative to the specifications of the Instance being requested. The costs are calculated so that a “good” match has lower cost than a “bad” match, where the relative goodness of a match is determined by how closely the available resources match the requested specifications.

In one embodiment, specifications can be hierarchical, and can include both hard and soft constraints. A hard constraint is a constraint is a constraint that cannot be violated and have an acceptable response. This can be implemented by having hard constraints be modeled as infinite-cost requirements. A soft constraint is a constraint that is preferable, but not required. Different soft constraints can have different weights, so that fulfilling one soft constraint may be more cost-effective than another. Further, constraints can take on a range of values, where a good match can be found where the available resource is close, but not identical, to the requested specification. Constraints may also be conditional, such that constraint A is a hard constraint or high-cost constraint if Constraint B is also fulfilled, but can be low-cost if Constraint C is fulfilled.

As implemented in one embodiment, the constraints are implemented as a series of rules with associated cost functions. These rules can be abstract, such as preferring nodes that don't already have an existing instance from the same project or group. Other constraints (hard or soft), may include: a node with available GPU hardware; a node with an available network connection over 100 Mbps; a node that can run Windows instances; a node in a particular geographic location, etc.

When evaluating the cost to place a VM instance on a particular node, the constraints are computed to select the group of possible nodes, and then a weight is computed for each available node and for each requested instance. This allows large requests to have dynamic weighting; if 1000 instances are requested, the consumed resources on each node are “virtually” depleted so the Cost can change accordingly.

Turning now to FIG. 5, a diagram showing one embodiment of the process of instantiating and launching a VM instance is shown as diagram 500. At time 502, the API Server 510 receives a request to create and run an instance with the appropriate arguments. In one embodiment, this is done by using a command-line tool that issues arguments to the API server 510. In a second embodiment, this is done by sending a message to the API Server 510. In one embodiment, the API to create and run the instance includes arguments specifying a resource type, a resource image, and control arguments. A further embodiment includes requester information and is signed and/or encrypted for security and privacy. At time 504, API server 510 accepts the message, examines it for API compliance, and relays a message to Compute Controller 520, including the information needed to service the request. In an embodiment in which user information accompanies the request, either explicitly or implicitly via a signing and/or encrypting key or certificate, the Compute Controller 520 sends a message to Auth Manager 530 to authenticate and authorize the request at time 506 and Auth Manager 530 sends back a response to Compute Controller 520 indicating whether the request is allowable at time 508. If the request is allowable, a message is sent to the Compute Manager 570 to instantiate the requested resource at time 510. At time 512, the Compute Manager selects a Compute Worker 576 and sends a message to the selected Worker to instantiate the requested resource. At time 514, Compute Worker identifies and interacts with Network Controller 560 to get a proper VLAN and IP address. At time 516, the selected Worker 576 interacts with the Object Store 540 and/or the Image Service 544 to locate and retrieve an image corresponding to the requested resource. If requested via the API, or used in an embodiment in which configuration information is included on a mountable volume, the selected Worker interacts with the Volume Controller 550 at time 518 to locate and retrieve a volume for the to-be-instantiated resource. At time 519, the selected Worker 576 uses the available virtualization infrastructure to instantiate the resource, mount any volumes, and perform appropriate configuration. At time 522, selected Worker 556 interacts with Network Controller 560 to configure routing. At time 524, a message is sent back to the Compute Controller 520 via the Compute Manager 550 indicating success and providing necessary operational details relating to the new resource. At time 526, a message is sent back to the API Server 526 with the results of the operation as a whole. At time 599, the API-specified response to the original command is provided from the API Server 510 back to the originally requesting entity. If at any time a requested operation cannot be performed, then an error is returned to the API Server at time 590 and the API-specified response to the original command is provided from the API server at time 592. For example, an error can be returned if a request is not allowable at time 508, if a VLAN cannot be created or an IP allocated at time 514, if an image cannot be found or transferred at time 516, etc. Such errors may be one potential source of mistakes or inconsistencies in periodic system status notifications discussed below.

Having described an example of a distributed application and operation within a distributed network system, various embodiments of methods and systems for verification of records of system change events in a distributed network system are described with references to FIGS. 6-11. As used herein, a distributed network system may relate to one or more services and components, and in particular cloud services. Various embodiments of the methods and systems disclosed herein may permit verification of records of system change events in a distributed network system providing cloud services.

FIG. 6 illustrates an environment 600 in which predictive monitoring may be useful. An example of environment 600 is cloud system 130 which may include many notifications 605 communicated between components of system 130 by message service 110. Monitoring service 107 may be coupled to message service 110 and configured to observe the notifications 605 as system objects progress from one state to another within system 130. Occasionally, monitoring service 107 may also observe that objects within system 130 may progress to a failure or other artifact of operation. Indeed, monitoring service 107 may observe many different artifacts 610-630 which may occur as a result of object being at one of various possible operational states. Advantageously, monitoring service 107 may gather information related to the operational states of the objects in system 130 and generate a predictive state model. Monitoring service 107 may generate predictions of one or more artifacts 610-630 in response to the various active states of the object. Further embodiments and details of implementation of monitoring service 107 are described below, with reference to FIGS. 7-11.

FIG. 7 illustrates one embodiment of a monitoring service 107. In one embodiment, monitoring service 107 includes an observer 705, a state determination unit 710, and a prediction engine 715. One of ordinary skill in the art may recognize additional or alternative modules which may be adapted for use with the present embodiments of monitoring service 107.

In one embodiment, observer 705 may be coupled to message service 110 and configured to observe notifications 605 communicated between components of system 130 regarding the state of one or more system objects. In various embodiments, observer 705 may include one or more switches or routers, implemented in either hardware or software, for direction and redirection of notifications 605.

State determination module 710 may determine the state of an object in response to a received notification 605. For example, state determination module 710 may include a database or other correlation of notification content and object states. A notification 605 may include, for example, an identifier associated with the object, a time the particular action associated with the notification 605 occurs, and a description of the action. Based upon this information, state determination module 710 may lookup the state of the object, or otherwise decipher the state of the object in response to the notification 605.

Prediction engine 715 may include a predictive model of the object associated with the notification. For example, prediction engine 715 may generate and store model date in a database associated with the object identifier. In one embodiment, prediction 715 may track the state of the object in real-time, or near real-time, and then update the state of the object in response to each notification 605. In a further embodiment, the prediction engine 715 may also update the predictive model to reflect the state information obtained from the notification 605 such that the predictive model is dynamic and reflects current conditions as well as historical state data. In still further embodiments, prediction engine 715 may use weights to give a certain preference for state data obtained within a first time period, while still giving consideration to state data obtained in a second time period. For example, more recent data may be assigned a relatively higher weight value than older state data.

FIG. 8 illustrates one embodiment of a method 800 for predictive object modeling which may be implemented by an embodiment of monitoring service 107. In one embodiment, the method 800 starts when observer 705 observes a notification 605 communicated by message service 110 in system 130 as illustrated at block 805. The notification 605 may be associated with a state of an object hosted or managed by system 130.

State determination module 710 may determine the state of the object in response to the notification 605 as illustrated in block 810. The prediction engine 715 may then reference a predictive object state model to predict occurrence of an artifact in response to the state of the object. For example, if the object is a VM to be built or updated on the system 130, the notification 605 may be associated with an API request for setting up the VM. State determination module 710 may determine the state of the VM setup process in response to information in the notification 605. For example, the notification 605 may be a disk attach notification, and based upon prior VM setup data, the state determination module 710 may determine which step or state of the VM setup process is associated with a disk attach operation.

Prediction engine 715 may then reference a predictive object state model to predict occurrence of an artifact 610-630, such as a failure, in response to the state of the object as shown at block 815. In a further embodiment, prediction engine may use additional information to generate the prediction. For example, prediction engine 715 may use timing information, such as a duration of time spent at each state, to enhance the prediction of an artifact.

By way of illustration, FIG. 9 illustrates an example of a process state flow 900 that may be associated with an object. In the illustrated example, the process state flow 900 starts at step 905 when an API request is received. The API request may include a request for a variety of operations. For example, a VM may be created or modified in response to an API request.

In the depicted example, one of three states may result from an API request 905: the system 130 may return a 5XX response at state 910, a server-side exception may be issued at state 920, or a process may be started at state 915. In the depicted example, the process is called process XYZ, and is a hypothetical process described merely as an example. If Process XYZ is started at state 915, it may proceed to state ‘X’ 925 to perform an operation. State X 925 may result in one of two states, either state ‘Y’ 940 or state ‘Z’ 930. If the process proceeds to state Z 930, then the process will perform an operation and proceed to completion at state 935. Alternatively, the process may move to state Y 940 to perform an operation. The operation at state Y 940 may yield one of three possible states: error state failure 945, state ‘F’ 950 or completion at state 935. If state F 950 is the result, another operation may be performed. The operation at state F 950 may yield one of two states: either a time threshold failure 955 or completion at state 935.

In one embodiment, the state flow diagram 900 may be generated in response to observations or historical data related to the results of the API request at state 905. In one embodiment, the state flow diagram 900 may be generated manually in response to process code, process design specifications, or observations of historical data. Alternatively, the process flow diagram 900 may be generated automatically through observations of the procession of operations on system 130.

FIG. 10 illustrates one embodiment of a prediction model 1000. In the depicted embodiment, the left column represents the present state of process flow, and the corresponding row represents historical data associated with the number of times the one of a plurality of subsequent states resulted. In one embodiment, the model 1000 may be updated in response to the outcome of each state transition observed by monitoring service 107. Thus, the model may be dynamic such that the accuracy of the model may improve over time as the number of state transitions recorded increases.

In the depicted example, the model 1000 may include data representing one hundred API requests received at state 905. Of the one hundred API requests, one resulted in a 5XX response at the state transition 910. Two API requests resulted in server-side exceptions at state 920. Ninety-seven API requests resulted in process XYZ starting at state transition 915. Similarly, the data represented in the model 1000 represents hypothetical state transitions during performance of process XYZ.

In one embodiment, the data in model 1000 may be used to determine predictions of the next state transition for each state in process flow 900. For example, the model prediction model 1100 illustrates the probability of each state transition occurring within the entire process state flow 900 based on the date in model 1000 of FIG. 10. In certain embodiments, the prediction model 1100 may be represented as a Markov chain.

In the described example, if the process XYZ starts at state 915, then there is a 100% chance that the process with progress to state X 925 according to the data in the model. Accordingly there would initially be no need for concern from a system administration perspective. Upon completion of State X, however, the process may transition to one of two different states, state Y 940 or state Z 930. There would still be no need for concern if the process proceeds to state Z 930, because there is still a 100% probability that the process will complete at state 935 if transitioning from state Z 930.

The prediction engine 715 may generate an alert if the process progresses to state Y 940, however, because there is a substantial likelihood that one or more artifacts may occur. In this example, an error state failure 945 may be an artifact, and a time threshold failure 955 may also be an artifact. The prediction engine may, for example, generate an electronic communication to a system administrator indicated that process XYZ has entered state Y 940. The prediction engine 715 may further include a probability of an artifact occurring in the communication. For example, at state Y, there is a 10% chance that an error state failure 945 will occur.

The prediction engine 715 may also generate an alert if the process transitions to state F 950 because there is a 40% likelihood that a time threshold failure 955 may occur as a result of the process transitioning to state F.

The following is an example of an API request and process XYZ which may proceed according to the model 1100 in some embodiments. This example is presented merely by way of illustration, and is not intended to be limiting.

In one embodiment, the observer 705 observes a notification 605 that system 130 has received an API request to attach a 50 GB disk to an instance of a VM. In this example, there is a 1% chance that a 5XX response is provided 910 and a 2% chance that a server-side exception 920 occurs, but there is a 97% chance that a disk attach process is launched at state 915. At state 925 a disk initialization function occurs. According to the predictive model, there is a 69% chance that the disk will be successfully initialized and a configuration process may occur at 930 before returning a process complete notification at state 935.

On the other hand, there is a 31% chance that the first disk initialization attempt will fail and a retry state 940 will occur. In one embodiment, the prediction engine may generate an alert to a system administrator, such as an electronic communication, indicating that the disk initialization failed its first attempt, and that a retry state 940 has been initiated. The alert may also indicate that there is a 10% chance that an error state failure 945 will occur. At that point, the system administrator may still have time to facilitate the retry at state 940 to avoid or mitigate error state failure 945. If the retry is successful, then the disk may be configured at state 950. In this example, there is a 40% chance that if a retry occurred at state 940, then there will not be sufficient time for the configuration at state 950 and a time threshold failure 955 may result. Otherwise, the disk attaches successfully at state 935. As mentioned above, this example is merely a non-limiting illustration of one embodiment, and any inaccuracies or simplifications in the description of a disk attach process are not intended to limit the scope of the claims in any way.

In one embodiment, predictive monitoring is implemented as an electrical circuit or as software instructions to be used in conjunction with a hardware processor to create a hardware-software combination that implements the specific functionality described herein. To the extent that one embodiment includes computer-executable instructions, those instructions may include software that is stored on a computer-readable medium. Further, one or more embodiments have associated with them a buffer. The buffer can take the form of data structures, a memory, a computer-readable medium, or an off-script-processor facility. For example, one embodiment uses a language runtime as an instruction processor, running as a discrete operating environment, as a process in an active operating environment, or can be run from a low-power embedded processor. In a second embodiment, the instruction processor takes the form of a series of interoperating but discrete components, some or all of which may be implemented as software programs. In another embodiment, the instruction processor is a discrete component, using a small amount of flash and a low power processor, such as a low-power ARM processor. In a further embodiment, the instruction processor includes a rule engine as a submodule as described herein.

Although illustrative embodiments have been shown and described, a wide range of modification, change and substitution is contemplated in the foregoing disclosure and in some instances, some features of the embodiments may be employed without a corresponding use of other features. Accordingly, it is appropriate that the appended claims be construed broadly and in a manner consistent with the scope of the embodiments disclosed herein. 

What is claimed is:
 1. A method of predictive monitoring of a process in a distributed network system providing cloud services, the method comprising: observing one or more notifications transmitted among components of the distributed network system, the notifications transmitted in the completion of an API request initiating the monitored process; determining a state of the monitored process based on the observed notifications; updating a predictive state model configured to generate state predictions for the monitored process, the updating of the predictive state model comprising assigning higher predictive weights to more recent state transitions, wherein the predictive state model is updated based on the determined state and based on timing information for the determined state, wherein the timing information includes the time of the transition by the monitored process to the determined state; and referencing, based on the determined state, the predictive state model to generate probabilities of future state transitions by the monitored process. wherein the updating of the predictive state model includes assigning higher predictive weights to more recent state transitions.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the timing information includes the duration of time spent by the monitored process in the determined state.
 3. The method of claim I, wherein the generated probabilities of future state transitions include a probability of a specific state transition occurring within a specified time threshold.
 4. The method of claim 3, wherein the specific state transitions are required for the completion of the API request.
 5. The method of claim 1, wherein the state of the monitored process is determined based on a mapping of notifications to specific states of the monitored process.
 6. A system for predictive monitoring of a process in a distributed network comprising: a processor; and a memory coupled to the processor, the memory including computer-readable instructions that, upon execution by the processor, cause the system to: observe one or more notifications transmitted among components of the distributed network system, the notifications transmitted in the completion of an API request initiating the monitored process; determine a state of the monitored process based on the observed notifications; and update a predictive state model configured to generate state predictions for the monitored process, the updating of the predictive state model comprising assigning higher predictive weights to more recent state transitions, wherein the predictive state model is updated based on the determined state and based on timing information for the determined state, wherein the timing information includes the time of the transition by the monitored process to the determined state; reference, based on the determined state, the predictive state model to generate probabilities of future state transitions by the monitored process.
 7. The distributed network system of claim 6, wherein the timing information includes the duration of time spent by the monitored process in the determined state.
 8. The distributed network system of claim 6, wherein the generated probabilities of future state transitions include a probability of a specific state transition occurring within a specified time threshold.
 9. The distributed network system of claim 8, wherein the specific state transitions are required for the completion of the API request.
 10. The distributed network system of claim 6, wherein the state of the monitored process is determined based on a mapping of notifications to specific states of the monitored process.
 11. A non-transitory computer-accessible storage medium storing program instructions that, when executed by a data processing device, cause the data processing device to implement operations for monitoring a process in a distributed network system providing cloud services, the operations comprising: observe one or more notifications transmitted among components of the distributed network system, the notifications transmitted in the completion of an API request initiating the monitored process; determine a state of the monitored process based on the observed notifications; update a predictive state model configured to generate state predictions for the monitored process, the updating of the predictive state model comprising assigning higher predictive weights to more recent state transitions, wherein the predictive state model is updated based on the determined state and based on timing information for the determined state, wherein the timing information includes the time of the transition by the monitored process to the determined state; and reference, based on the determined state, the predictive state model to generate probabilities of future state transitions by the monitored process.
 12. The computer-accessible storage medium of claim 11, wherein the timing information includes the duration of time spent by the monitored process in the determined state.
 13. The computer-accessible storage medium of claim 11, wherein the generated probabilities of future state transitions include a probability of a specific state transition occurring within a specified time threshold.
 14. The computer-accessible storage medium of claim 13, wherein the specific state transitions are required for the completion of the API request. 